Friday, October 26, 2012

Eliminate Argentina

New Bern, NC

South America seems to be about the only place they eliminate from the possibilities of Hurricane Sandy's path.   One model predicts a hit on New Bern, one on Savannah River then Minneapolis, one on Rome, NY, one on Vermont, one that makes a complete loop around the midwest, and one that misses North America altogether.

All these weather models are like the problem of the man with two watches.  With one watch he knew what time it is, but with two watches he never knew the time.  With N weather models, it is the same problem on steroids.   The forecasters can always claim that at least one of their forecasts was correct.

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