Mr. Toastmaster
I would like to speak today about some
famous people. People that we either hate or admire. I'll talk
about how their behavior relates to how we judge them. I'll give
several examples. I'll show you how Harvard Business School analyzes
such things. I'll finish with a bit advice about life.
Let's see; who is a famous hero? Elon
Musk! The SpaceX and Tesla electric car guy. Wikipedia article says
that he made his money from Paypal, which many of you know.
On TV, I see SpaceX rockets on
supplying the ISS. But that not all. The BBC said, that Musk is
talking about a private colony on Mars for crying out lout. Buzz
Aldrin called that bodacious.
On the Tesla front, CNN shows film of
drivers happily reading their newspapers as their Tesla car with auto
pilot drives them to work. Forbes Magazine says that 400,000 advance
orders for the Tesla model 3 are already sold.
But Musk is even bolder than that.
CNBC reported that, South Australia has an electricity crisis. They
got rid of their old dirty power plants, leaving only solar and wind.
But when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, South
Australians sit in the dark. The Aussies are in a tizzy. They don't
know what to do. In steps Elon Musk. He publicly boasted that he
could fix South Australia's problem within 100 days, or else give
them everything for free. Google News said that 74000 newspapers
picked up that story. Wow, what's not to admire?
Wait! Not so fast. Tesla's report to
the SEC says that they lose almost a billion dollars per year, and
they have only 6 months left to start delivering on those 400000
advance orders. If Tesla Motors fails, many people will be hurt.
How will we judge Elon Musk then?
The book Endgame told the story of
Bobby Fischer, the arrogant, boastful, abrasive child prodigy chess
player. It also tells how Fischer's public image changed overnight
from villain to hero when he beat the famous Boris Spassky for the
world chess championship in 1972.
Not everyone is boastful. Readers
Digest wrote about Mother Teresa and Mahatma Ghandi. They were both
successful yet modest..
Apparently, we judge Musk and Fischer
first by their success, and second by their attitudes.
There are two dimensions at play,
success and modesty. For only $150K Harvard Business School will
teach you how to analyze almost all problems using a diagram like
this with four quadrants.
The vertical axis is success versus
failure, and the horizontal axis we have boastful versus modest.
Heroes like Elon Musk go in the upper right corner. We use words
like bold, boastful, arrogant, and reach for the stars, to describe
them. For people on the lower right, we might also say arrogant and
reach for the stars but we also might say hated losers. Bobby
Fischer was promoted from lower right to upper right. We use the
word admirable for the upper left and pitiful for the lower right.
Interestingly, cultural differences,
can move the center point up/down/left/or right. For example, Radio
Sweden reported on Sweden's first expedition to climb Mount Everest.
They said, that the coach told the team to “try adequately”.
Not, “do your best” but “try adequately”. The team made it
to within 100 m of the summit, then turned back. Sweden considered
that a success. The American equivalent is the familiar slogan
“Pikes Peak or Bust.” Center higher. Center lower.
A recent article in euronews said that
Americans are biased towards boldness, and Europeans biased towards
modesty, and because of that the EU is falling behind. Center right.
Center left.
Here's
the point. In life, your degree of success depends of course on
traditional values of hard work and skill, but also things beyond
your control like timing, luck, and local culture. But whether you
fall on the left or the right side is a strategic life choice.
Choose carefully.
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