In June I posted Election or Revolution? making the argument that Trump's supporters were actually attempting to make a non-violent non-organized revolution against the US Federal Government. I said that the revolution was likely to fail.
Now, with the Republican Convention over, I say that the revolution has already failed. One of its prime goals was to split and destroy the Republican Party. That didn't happen this week.
But I can't help to prognosticate some more. (Why not? Bloggers don't have to ask anyone for permission to say what they think.) I don't know who will win Trump or Clinton. I don't know how I or Libby will vote. However:
- If Trump wins, the immediate reaction will be regret and a feeling by Trump's supporters that they reached too far. I compare it to the Brexit vote in that way. Longer term, everyone will try to limit what Trump does. But four years from now, a liberal democrat will be virtually guaranteed to win a presidential race. The country will swing left for generations. It will be historic.
- If Clinton wins, the angry people will become angrier. The next time a surge in anti-government anger coincides with a national election, the angry people could say, "We tried working within the system with Trump. That didn't work. Violence is the way." The word civil war sounds extreme, but something coming close to that could happen.
If the Supreme Court upholds Obama's executive orders on immigration, it would pave the way for hundreds of executive orders by the next President circumventing Congress.
"We live in interesting times." Unfortunately (fortunately?) for me, most of the consequences of 2016 will occur after I'm gone.