Superstition

The Indian River

27 51.14 N 080 28.64 W

I read a fascinating article this morning in the NY Times; Iraq Swears by Bomb Detector U.S. Sees as Useless

The article told that Iraqi police and military have been spending millions of dollars on what US sources call a divining rod. The manufacturer claims, "its device can find guns, ammunition, drugs, truffles, human bodies and even contraband ivory at distances up to a kilometer, underground, through walls, underwater or even from airplanes three miles high." The Americans say bunk.

No matter what you or I think about it, the Iraqis who believe in this thing are putting their own lives on the line; and that deserves a measure of grudging respect. “I don’t care about Sandia or the Department of Justice or any of them,” General Jabiri said. “I know more about this issue than the Americans do. In fact, I know more about bombs than anyone in the world.” No doubt it is not the general's live personally on the line, but assuming that his opinions are representative of the lower ranks makes me swallow hard. It is precisely the contradiction between incredulity and respect for those on the front lines that makes the article especially interesting.

So, if someone walked up to me and asked, "Are you superstitious?" my answer would be, "Certainly not." That's easy to say, but it is also what everyone says. Ask just about anybody, "Are you a good person?" 99+ percent will answer, "Yes." Those are the kind of questions where self-deceit overcomes all.

I'm an engineer with scientific training. I pride myself on thinking and living scientifically free of superstition or irrational beliefs. I don't gamble because it's foolish to bet with the odds against you. On trips to Las Vegas I never bet so much as a nickel on a slot machine or other gambling. I could list a lot of areas where I consider my thinking as more rational than others. Yada yada yada; so would everyone else. But is it true?

I do conduct my affairs as if Murphy's Law was true. Rationality tells me that it can't be true. Is that superstition, or is it wise to be cautious and skeptical as a matter of policy, pretending that Murphy is right? You judge.

With regard to our sailing adventures, I'll confess to significant influence to "gut feel" in making decisions. We do go/no go decisions regularly. We choose some anchorages and reject others. Of course we listen to weather reports, and anecdotal evidence, but in the end instinctive "gut feel" weighs very heavily indeed. I recall several times rejecting a seemingly rational choice on the basis, "I feel spooked." That sure sounds irrational. Can I explain it away as subconscious expression of doubts and risks that may be real but that my brain can't articulate? You judge.

So, having thought about it for a while, I conclude that I can't make an objective judgment of my own rationality. Perhaps nobody can. I suspect that philosophers have wrestled with that question for millennia. If so, I don't know because I haven't studied much philosophy. I think it's bunk, like Iraqi bomb detecting wands.